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Kay Soyemi (Esq.)
 Social Commentator
SW9, London
UK

more articles by Soyemi

All of these are already happening in Nigeria and our leaders are failing woefully in tackling the myriad problems confronting the country and its citizens. Instead, our leaders have solidly fixed their focus on the immediate past in an obdurate stance, akin to a he-goat, to prove their independence of thoughts and actions. Our leaders have adopted a singular, myopic, vindictive, ethnocentric, tunnel-vision approach rooted in the failed past to recycle old politicians and officials who have not had the benefit of moving out of the mid-1950s to address 21st century matters and issues.

Needless to ask, I pose the question once more, are these facts or fictions in Nigeria?


$500 Million Loan – For Whose Benefit?
 by Kay Soyemi

 

Dr. Thomas Fingar, the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), recently presented and discussed his report titled the “Global Trends 2025” and among many other things, has predicted a bleak future for Nigeria if certain identified indicators were not addressed before 2025. Although, Dr. Fingar was at pains to explain that the purpose of the 120-page report was not to make concrete predictions, but rather to “stimulate strategic thinking about how trends will evolve in the future… And the goal is to provide an opportunity, as people begin to settle into jobs, to think about their own areas of responsibility in a broader, global context.” , I have made extracts that relates to Nigeria, even when these have not been specifically addressed or mentioned. These have been done to highlight the fallacy or otherwise, of this report and to examine if any of the matters it raised should be of concern to our leaders, Nigerians and if these are even relevant to us as a nation.

All extracted materials from this report are bolded or in text boxes highlighted for impact and my narratives or observations in italics.

We believe ideological conflicts akin to the Cold War are unlikely to take root in a world in which most states will be preoccupied with the pragmatic challenges of globalization and shifting global power alignments.  The force of ideology is likely to be strongest in the Muslim world—particularly the Arab core.  In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction.

Nigeria has suffered from religious disturbances in very recent times and the conflicts have often been wrongly labeled as ethnic simply because religious and ethnic lines are so blurred in the country, moreso, when specific tribal brandings are often associated with specific religious leanings. The Al’ Majiris, as a class of disposed and unemployed youths provide a ready army for ruthless Moslem clerics right from the times of Maitatsine to present day extremists.

Resource issues will gain prominence on the international agenda.  Unprecedented global economic growth—positive in so many other regards—will continue to put pressure on a number of highly strategic resources, including energy, food, and water, and demand is projected to outstrip easily available supplies over the next decade or so.  For example, non-OPEC liquid hydrocarbon production—crude oil, natural gas liquids, and unconventionals such as tar sands—will not grow commensurate with demand.  Oil and gas production of many traditional energy producers already is declining.  Elsewhere—in China, India, and Mexico—production has flattened.  Countries capable of significantly expanding production will dwindle; oil and gas production will be concentrated in unstable areas.  As a result of this and other factors, the world will be in the midst of a fundamental energy transition away from oil toward natural gas and coal and other alternatives.

Nigeria falls squarely within this description of countries where the production of crude oil is declining due to several factors that are resultant from a lack of directional policy on the part of government and the inability of our policy makers to put in place, the required infrastructure to tap into our natural gas capacity. Whilst Nigeria is also abundantly blessed with coal as well, the shortsightedness of policy making and over reliance on crude oil has made this sector moribund in the production of energy for the local market as well as a means of earning foreign exchange.

In the absence of employment opportunities and legal means for political expression, conditions will be ripe for disaffection, growing radicalism, and possible recruitment of youths into terrorist groups (read separatist minorities).  Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long-established groups—that inherit organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks—and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized.

The situation in Nigeria is already ripe for this – there are so many militant groups such as the Egbésu Boys, MEND, OPC and so many others whose basic grouse stem from their inability to express their political frustrations and desires peacefully. These groups draw heavily from disenfranchised youths who have no means of employment and have not been empowered by various failed government policies and initiatives. The return to civilian elections and democracy has further invested these groups with organized structures in the form of politicians who have used them mercilessly to steal votes after arming them with sophisticated weaponry that is now being turned towards established law and order. Particularly, in the Niger Delta area, these groups have become self-radicalised and are taking up arms against the Nigerian state in order to demand a greater say in how their oil wealth is managed and disbursed. The stories of vandalized oil pipelines, oil bunkering, willful kidnapping and extortions, sustained military confrontations with the JTF are manifestations of this social dilemma now confronting the Nigerian Federal government.

Despite increased global demand for commodities for which Sub-Saharan Africa will be a major supplier, local populations are unlikely to experience significant economic gain.  Windfall profits arising from sustained increases in commodity prices might further entrench corrupt or otherwise ill-equipped governments in several regions, diminishing the prospects for democratic and market-based reforms. 

We are all witnesses to the astronomical rise in the wealth of (s)elected politicians and public officers and the parallel drop in the living standards of everyday Nigerians. The rat (do or die, if you like) race to corner the nation’s wealth is an albatross hanging around the neck of infrastructural development across the country. Lip service is constantly paid to market reforms and its operations are further used to corner the nation’s institutions for private pockets. Witness the rise of the Odetolas, Zenon Oil, Dangote, Adenuga, Ejiofor et al

Energy price volatility - In the study we pay a lot of attention to energy and energy cost. High prices transfer wealth to a particular set of countries. By 2025 the set of countries with energy, with hydrocarbons in marketable quantities is going to be much smaller than it is today. The depletion of fields in the smaller producers that will play out over the next 17 years will mean it will be even more concentrated in Russia, in the Persian Gulf, in some African countries.

Currently, Nigeria ranks ahead both the UK and the US in terms of the sizes of its foreign exchange reserves. This is not an indication of how well our economy has been managed by successive governments but a result of the fluke and demand for energy. Market pressure drove up the country’s earning revenues and buoyed our reserves. This amount of money has increasingly come under the perfidious attention of many state governors who insists these must be shared without showing results for the amount they currently receive. Fortunately for Nigeria, it is likely to be one of those African countries that will still have energy reserves in 2025, again, not by dint of prudent management of resources but because the development and use of alternative sources of energy will reduce the demand for hydrocarbon oils..

What will they do with that wealth? Invest in education, in infrastructure, in health care, invest in development, or buy weapons and make mischief, or some combination of those. If prices are high, it means much of the struggling world is priced out of the market. And what does that mean again, for the youthful population looking for jobs?

We know what our rulers would do with the wealth; corner it for their personal purses, buy palatial choice properties outside of Nigeria and buoy up foreign economies, reduce the subsidy on crude oil products enjoyed by common Nigerians; refuse to create job opportunities, refuse to develop our infrastructures, buy weapons to use for rigging elections; and of course leave our youth to sink further into impoverishment.

Identities will mean something different. They already do because of, again, communications. For hundreds of years one’s national identity was the dominant one: an American, a Pole, a Mexican. Now one can have multiple identities at the same time – religious, ethnic, tribal, regional, class, national – that one can associate with groups virtually. Which identity is going to drive resources located in a country may no longer be as important as what region of the country. Or what sub-national group – again, religious, ethnic, whatever – lives in the area of the resources. Do they regard it as their inheritance, or as the national inheritance, to be distributed according to their countrymen who have the misfortune to live somewhere else?

This is already the status quo in Nigeria years before 2025. It informs the agitations for resource control. Simply put, there is very little grounds for Nigerians to see themselves as Nigerians; the ruling elite in Nigeria has ensured that we now have a house divided against itself.

The emergence of new economic tigers by 2025 could occur where youth bulges mature into “worker bulges.” Experts argue that this demographic bonus is most advantageous when the country provides an educated work force and a business friendly environment for investment. Potential beneficiaries include Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, and the Maghreb states of North Africa (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia), Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

Sadly Nigeria is not listed as a potential economic tiger despite UMYA’s platitudes about Vision 2020. Notice the list of countries includes those that we may classify as backwards or war torn today in comparison to Nigeria?

The populations of already parlous youth bulge states—such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—are projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan’s and Nigeria’s populations are each projected to grow by about 55 million people. Ethiopia and DROC will likely add about 40 million each, while the populations of Afghanistan and Yemen are projected to grow more than 50 percent larger than today’s. All will retain age structures with large proportions of young adults, a demographic feature that is associated with the emergence of political violence and civil conflict.

Again, Nigeria, despite its vast oil wealth and potential human resources are classified in the negative. We are ranked along with Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Congo etc. At least, we get some credit for our proclivity for procreation – some mean achievement! It simply means we are a nation of fu*kers! Needless to say, we are sitting on a time bomb of political violence and civil conflict. Political violence is already a de facto phenomenon in the Nigerian context and civil conflict? Anybody heard about the reports coming out Jos presently? BBC reports an official 200 dead over 2 days because of suspicions of rigging by the PDP in a local election!

The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age?

By 2025 the world will be in the midst of a fundamental energy transition—in terms of both fuel types and sources. The number of countries capable of meaningfully expanding production will decline. Only six countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq (potentially), and 42 Russia—are projected to account for 39 percent of total world oil production in 2025. The major producers increasingly will be located in the Middle East, which contains some two-thirds of world reserves. OPEC production in the Persian Gulf countries is projected to grow by 43 percent during 2003- 2025. Saudi Arabia alone will account for almost half of all Gulf production, an amount greater than that expected from Africa and the Caspian area combined. Even though the use of natural gas is likely to grow steadily in absolute terms, coal may be the fastest growing energy source despite being the “dirtiest.” Rising prices for oil and natural gas would put a new premium on energy sources that are cheap, abundant, and close to markets. Three of the largest and fastest-growing energy consumers—the US, China, and India—and Russia possess the four largest recoverable coal reserves, representing 67 percent of known global reserves.

This should serve as a clarion call to our leaders if they were an astute lot, but neither the executive nor the legislative chambers are interested in national development but in how to share the nation’s wealth among themselves. While coal may be the coming alternative to hydrocarbons, Nigeria does not feature as a potential beneficiary since the largest consumers also happen to be the largest repository of the ‘dirty’ energy. Did someone say oil? Saudi Arabia alone will reportedly be able to pump the equivalent of what the whole of Africa and the Capsian area combined would produce. Simply put, oil as a potential revenue earner for Nigeria is fast on the wane and this would be in the lifetime of MOST of us!

A sustained plunge in oil prices would have significant implications for countries relying on robust oil revenues to balance the budget or build up domestic investment. For Iran, a drop in oil prices to the $55-60 range or below would put significant pressure on the regime to make painful choices between

subsidizing populist economic programs and sustaining funding for intelligence and security operations and other programs designed to extend its regional power.

Although, the report specifically mentioned Iran and failed to mention our country, one wonders whether the average Nigerians should worry about this because the government has not really extended the largesse arising from Nigeria’s position as a producer of crude oil to trickle down to the masses. As a matter of fact, the removal of subsidies on oil products was one of the last acts of OBJ – a cynical move I mentioned at the time as being designed to favor UMYA by a departing ruler who could no longer be bothered or affected by the backlash. Fortunately, UMYA was too scared of the potential backlash that he was quickly forced to rescind the decision which had his support from the word go. Sadly, UMYA and his current team has not earmarked funding from crude earnings to provide security for Nigerians, unless you want to consider the security budget that was designed to buy arms to deal with the Niger Delta militants as laudable.

In 2025, Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the most vulnerable region on Earth in terms of economic challenges, population stresses, civil conflict, and political instability. The weakness of states and troubled relations between states and societies probably will slow major improvements in the region’s prospects over the next 20 years unless there is sustained international engagement and, at times, intervention. Southern Africa will continue to be the most stable and promising sub-region politically and economically.

In other words, business will continue as usual in Nigeria until there is a military intervention by the international bodies. Sovereign violation, I hear someone say, but what, if Nigeria is in a state of conflict akin to the Biafra War as it is conceivably drifting presently? Mind you, am not saying this is likely to be an Igbo against the rest of Nigeria scenario; it could easily be any of the other tribes against the rest or even a different connotation of tribal bandings tired of not being heard or ignored and seeking to assert its rights to be treated fairly. The possibilities are endless and our politicians are blissfully ignorant of these facts. Ignorance is bliss, definitely.

Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to be a major supplier of oil, gas, and metals to world markets and increasingly will attract the attention of Asian states seeking access to commodities, including China and India. However, despite increased global demand for commodities, increased resource income may not benefit the majority of the population or result in significant economic gains. Poor economic policies—rooted in patrimonial interests and incomplete economic reform—will likely exacerbate ethnic and religious divides as well as crime and corruption in many countries. Ruling elites are likely to continue to accrue greater income and wealth, while poverty will persist or worsen in rural areas and sprawling urban centers. The divide between elite and non-elite populations is likely to widen, reinforcing conditions that could generate divisive political and religious extremism.

Note the key reference here is that despite increased global demands for commodities, increased resource income may not benefit the majority of the population. It goes further to state that poor economic policies rooted in PATRIMONIAL INTERESTS AND INCOMPLETE ECONOMIC REFORMS will worsen ethnic and religious divides as well as crime and corruption. It goes further to describe our political leaders attitude in accruing greater wealth etc and the attendant effect of reinforcing conditions that could generate divisive political and religious extremism.

These are no longer suppositions in Nigeria, but reality! The divide between the rich and not-so-rich is widening with the ferocious eradication of a middle class economy in Nigeria and it is a question of time before the conflagration consumes the nation. Again, Jos is but a classic example of how thin the trigger hair is. All Nigeria is waiting for is a simple excuse to go to war with itself.

Text Box: Energy Security Other possible examples of the militarization of energy security include:    Domestic instability, insurgencies, and conflict within strategic energy-producing and exporting states. Ethnic and political violence and criminal activity currently threaten a large portion of Nigeria’s oil production. State failure in a key energy producing country may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilize energy flows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria already uses its control of energy resources as weapons of political coercion – on its own citizens, particularly in the Niger Delta and has not hesitated to send in the troops into places like Zaki and Odi. MEND and other militant groups already target oil production facilities and pipelines. Kidnapping and extortions also targeting oil workers and facilities are already affecting oil production in the Niger Delta area, and of course, oil bunkering with its attendant pipeline fires are all too frequent occurrences today. Nigeria was specifically mentioned as a crude example of what happens In terms of domestic instability, insurgencies, and conflict within strategic energy-producing and exporting states when militarization of energy security occurs, so I do not need to elaborate on this.

If global economic growth did suffer a severe reverse—akin to the Indonesian crisis of the late 1990s but on a worldwide scale— religiously based rural insurgencies and ethnic struggles probably would ensue in a number of countries including Brazil, India, China, and in much of Africa. If even the moderately severe projections of climate change are correct, the impacts could spur religious conflict through large sections of Africa and Asia. Among the countries at greatest risk of such conflict and scapegoating of minority communities are a number of predominantly Muslim countries with significant Christian minorities (Egypt, Indonesia, and Sudan); predominately Christian states with substantial Muslim minorities (e.g., DROC, Philippines, and Uganda) or finely balanced between Christian and Muslim (Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania).

Nigeria is already experiencing religiously based rural insurgencies and ethnic struggles, even in the Northern part of Nigeria where we have frequent clashes between Fulani herdsmen and other Hausa villagers and farmers. The conflicts in Jos at the time Joshua Dariye held sway in Plateau State also fits into this pattern. Nigeria is finely balanced between Christians and Moslems and, although, we like to kid ourselves about our abilities to co-exist despite religious differences, happenings on the grounds in places like Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Aba, Onitsha and Umuahia put a lie to this assertion. Yes, we are already witnessing the ‘scapegoating’ of minority communities in Nigeria.

Text Box: Increased demand for energy worldwide provides opportunities for criminals to expand their activities through direct ties to energy suppliers and leaders of countries where suppliers are located. With energy supplies increasingly concentrated in countries with poor governance, longstanding practices of corruption, and an absence of the rule of law, the potential for penetration by organized crime is high.   • The illicit activities of organized crime in the energy sector provide affiliated companies with an unfair competitive advantage in the global energy market. • Over time, given their far-reaching tentacles into government offices and corporate board rooms, criminals may be in a position to control states and influence market actions, if not foreign policies. For many resource-rich countries, energy revenues provide the basis for the whole economy and energy policies are a key consideration in foreign policy decisions. • The likelihood of penetration by criminal networks is probably greatest in Eurasian markets where organized crime has been an institutionalized part of the political and economic environment and where over time organized crime figures have evolved into influential businessmen and become valuable partners for corrupt officials. • As Russian and Eurasian suppliers capture a larger and larger portion of the energy markets in Europe and Asia, we expect these organized crime networks to expand their operations, fostering greater corruption and manipulation of foreign policies to their advantage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 I particularly like the scenario painted above for the direct reference to ties between leaders of countries where energy suppliers are located and criminals. Although, I believe no direct reference has been made to Nigeria because of political correctness and the fact that organized crime in Nigeria is not the same as the Mafia in Russia or the Eurasian markets, Nigerians are certainly not in doubt as to who is truly in charge of governance in Nigeria. The penetration has already been achieved decades ago and fully consolidated in recent times. Enough said!

Let me close by underscoring a point I made at the beginning. None of this is immutable. None of it is even a prediction. All of it is susceptible to intervention by leaders – leaders in our own country, leaders around the world. To be successful, the leadership intervention is going to have to have multilateral approaches, is going to demand utilization of resources very differently than we have become accustomed to in the past.

Let me borrow the words of Dr. Fingar in my closing as well – “None of it is even a prediction. All of it is susceptible to intervention by leaders – leaders in our own country, leaders around the world. To be successful, the leadership intervention is going to have to have multilateral approaches, is going to demand utilization of resources very differently than we have become accustomed to in the past”. All of these are already happening in Nigeria and our leaders are failing woefully in tackling the myriad problems confronting the country and its citizens. Instead, our leaders have solidly fixed their focus on the immediate past in an obdurate stance, akin to a he-goat, to prove their independence of thoughts and actions. Our leaders have adopted a singular, myopic, vindictive, ethnocentric, tunnel-vision approach rooted in the failed past to recycle old politicians and officials who have not had the benefit of moving out of the mid-1950s to address 21st century matters and issues.

Needless to ask, I pose the question once more, are these facts or fictions in Nigeria?
 

 

 

 

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