BEFORE WRITING OFF THE US INTELLIGENCE
REPORT
by Madaki O. Ameh
Since the news broke a
few days ago, there has been understandable umbrage about the contents
of the US National Intelligence Council report titled “Mapping
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future”. The report attempts to look into the
future of sub-Saharan Africa for the next 15 years, and in a crystal
ball like manner, predict what the trends are, and what may happen in
the region within the period of their projection.
Like all things Western
in nature, the report appears to paint a gloomy picture of the
situation in sub-Saharan Africa,
and mentions specific countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and others
a number of times. It has also been widely reported in the press that
the report stated that Nigeria would become a failed State in 15
years. Such comments, if true should elicit feelings of anger and an
outpouring of patriotism from Nigerians and indeed other well meaning
Africans, both at home and in the diaspora. The President has
understandably responded to the report in his letter to the Senate,
where he reportedly condemned the report as a doomsday prophecy from
those who do not wish Nigeria and the African continent well, in spite
of all the efforts being made on all fronts to put things right,
concluding that they must be living in the past.
Coming from a Western
country like the US, with their penchant for putting the African
continent down whenever they have the opportunity, such umbrage may
not be altogether unjustified. However, before an outright
condemnation of the report, it is important to read it carefully, and
come to an informed conclusion on whether or not, it is as damning as
being widely reported.
Before
making any comment on the issue, I took time to read every line of the
said report, and my honest conclusion is that it is a balanced
report. This may appear difficult to agree with, given the sense of
hurt national pride and the possibility of misinterpreting the report
as a doomsday prediction for Nigeria and other African countries, but
the truth is that, nowhere in the report was there any false
assumption on the prevailing situation in Nigeria and other countries
in Africa. If at all, the writers of the report have demonstrated a
much more in-depth knowledge and ability at analysing African affairs
than most of our self acclaimed messiahs in Africa will like to admit.
In fact, President Obasanjo's angry reaction to the report is a clear
demonstration that, he either did not read the entire report, or did
not read it with an open mind, as some of the conclusions and analysis
clearly challenge his views of himself and what he perceives himself
as achieving or having achieved for Nigeria and Africa.
To start with,
Nigeria is
not mentioned more than six times in the entire 17 page report, and
whenever this happened, it was in the process of analysing an issue
with larger implications for the rest of Africa. In none of those
references were the analysis faulty or the information put across
wrong or patently unfair. It would only appear so, if the conclusions
are being drawn by a self conceited and egocentric reader, whose mind
set is already that the West sees nothing good about Africa. But I
strongly believe that if there were positive things to analyse, they
would gladly do so. In many instances, you actually see them
struggling to find something positive to analyse, and also wishing
that their predictions would be wrong.
I must say that I am impressed that such quality of work and analysis
about another continent can come out of a one day conference, and one
cannot help drawing a parallel with our own National Political Reforms
Conference, which, after being given a three months time frame to
deliberate on issues which we all know about on a day by day basis,
are still asking for more time to debate the issues in plenary
session.
To start
with, nowhere in the report was it stated that that Nigeria is a
failed State, or would fail in 15 years as gleefully reported in the
press. The relevant section of the report reads as follows:
"Downside scenarios included:
Nigeria as
a failed state, dragging down a large part of the West African region;
some type of ecological downturn; and conflict over water."
These are just scenarios, and for those familiar with scenario
planning, you look at the upsides and the downsides, and advance
remedies for what would happen in any of the situations, the objective
being to warn against the actualisation of the downside scenarios and
play up the upsides. And the operative word in the above sentence is
Nigeria
'as' a failed State, not Nigeria 'is' a failed State. And that
difference in words is substantial, especially if read within the
context of the entire report, rather than adopting a cut and paste
approach, as appears to have been done to create sensationalism.
Those
genuinely interested in the future of Nigeria and the African
continent should read this report thoroughly, to enable them
transparently assess our challenges and design actions around
addressing them in an enduring manner.
No matter
the extent of President Obasanjo’s lofty 'dreams' for Nigeria, which I
believe we all share in, there is a time to wake up from slumber and
really carry out a realistic assessment to determine whether you are
headed in the direction of your dreams or not. Not to do so is to
continue to wallow in self deceit.
What one would have expected President Obasanjo to do is to turn the
report into an opportunity for a genuine soul searching exercise on
what needs to be done to irreversibly set Nigeria and other African
countries on the path of growth, comparable to their counterparts in
Asia who started the challenge of development at the same time with
the continent, but have left us far behind. The report should have
been turned over to a team of genuine think-tanks, who would develop
practical action programmes out of the scenarios that have been
painted, to ensure that appropriate remedial actions are put in place
to pleasantly surprise Nigerian citizens, Africans and even the
authors of the report. This is because the genuine desire of everyone
on the continent, and even the writers of the report, if one were to
read in between the lines, is that the projections should be proved
wrong through conscious action by African leaders. Sadly however,
everything on ground suggests otherwise, and 15 years is not such a
long time.
The major challenge to us as a people is the intolerance of our
leaders to genuine criticisms of their persons and programmes. That
egocentric approach effectively blocks their minds to any opinion that
does not support their air of self aggrandisement, which personifies
itself in obscene and shameful activities like the recent launch of
the presidential library project. At the risk of attracting insults
from the likes of Fani-Kayode, who has become
Obasanjo's 'defender of the universe', the truth must still be told
that Obasanjo has an exalted opinion of himself and his achievements
which are not matched by the realities on ground, and this could set
us back for many more years than the gloomy, but true picture painted
by the U.S. intelligence report.
For the avoidance of
doubt, I have set out below, verbatim reproductions from relevant
sections of the report, which I consider to be factual statements and
conclusions, which in no way warrants an angry reaction of the sort we
have seen in the last couple of days, with appropriate comments where
necessary.
QUOTES FROM THE US
INTELLIGENCE REPORT
-
South Africa,
Africa’s oil producing states, and a handful of other African
countries committed to governance reforms have the best chance of
attracting international investment needed to compete and survive.
The above is a factual
comment, which buttresses the fact that good governance and
international investment go hand in hand.
-
Hydrocarbon
exports will certainly boom but they are limited and distinctly
focused within enclave economies in a few states. Indeed there is
evidence to suggest that hydrocarbons have retarded African
development, promoting patronage and misrule by African leaders
rather than national development.
No one can realistically
controvert the fact that Nigeria suffers from the ‘Resource Curse’
syndrome, as we have had little or nothing to show as a country for
the several years of oil and gas production and revenues, most of
which has ended in private overseas bank accounts, and still supports
their grandiose lifestyles. Even with the few recent efforts at
entrenching accountability and curbing corruption, the overwhelming
consensus is that the efforts are selective and don’t go deep enough,
as no one has, to date, been convicted of corruption. In spite of the
brilliant and bold efforts by the EFCC in recent times, such efforts
lack the institutional structures and support required to sustain them
in the long run, leading many to believe that the results seen so far
has been due to the fearless disposition of the Chairman of the
Commission, who can be dropped at any time. The fact that most basic
amenities required to sustain life in a civilised manner are lacking
in Nigeria cannot be denied by any serious minded person, except the
traditional government apologists.
-
In addition, the
hierarchy of nations in Africa
in terms of their economic, political, and state performance will be
unlikely to change markedly in the next 15 years. Certainly, some
countries will have significant reversals of fortune (for better or
worse) due to leadership changes, exogenous economic shocks, or
developments in their regions that cannot be predicted in advance.
However, it would be surprising if, in general, the set of countries
that are the current leading performers in categories were
substantially different from those in 15 years.
This again is a factual
comment, which needs no further elaboration.
-
Paradoxically,
other countries may be burdened by their seemingly munificent
resource endowment. It is unlikely that the major oil producers
(Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Sao Tome, Sudan) would have a
future significantly different than the ruinous record of petroleum
producers to date.
Again, another factual
comment. If oil and gas revenues have not salvaged or lives in the
last 40 years, it is unlikely that there will be a dramatic turn
around in 15 years, without concrete actions on ground which we cannot
see, unless with binoculars provided by the government.
-
However, states
with high levels of violence will not automatically be failed
states; indeed, the ability of African countries to continue to
muddle along despite high levels of violence should not be
underestimated. For instance, 20,000 people have been killed in
Nigeria while that country has maintained its democratic façade.
Thousands have also died in Congo during the period when all formal
fighting was supposed to have ended.
This is a fair comment,
and accurately reflects our penchant for burying the hatchet, even
when there has been mindless mayhem over flimsy conflicts, many of
which are reactions to events that happen in places far away. The
incidents in Kano, Kaduna, parts of Plateau, Odi, Zaki-Biam, and many
others, where thousands of innocent Nigerians were mowed down in cold
blood, without any efforts by government to bring the culprits to
book, cannot be denied. Also undeniable is the death of uncountable
Nigerians in the Ikeja Cantonment disaster, and because Nigeria has no
accurate data on its citizens living and dead, casualties from such
disasters and many more are only estimated, with government officials
stating on a number of occasions that contrary to press reports, ‘only
200 people’ died, as if the death of one Nigerian in questionable
situations is not regrettable enough!
-
Most countries
in Africa will continue to hold multiparty elections on a regular
basis, although these elections will continue to vary considerably
in quality. Almost all countries across the continent will continue
to proclaim a public adherence to democracy and no other form of
government will significantly challenge the nominal allegiance to
regular elections. However, commitment to democracy in Africa will
remain a “mile wide and inch thick.” Therefore, the critical
determinants of democratic success will be the social coalition that
actually is actively in favor of democracy.
Our experience with
democracy in Nigeria so far clearly vindicates this position, as undue
efforts have been channelled towards preserving our so called
‘nascent’ democracy, even if that means keeping quiet in the face of
fraudulent elections, misrule, high handedness and outright arrogance
on the part of people in government positions. Many people who were
cheated out of the last elections in 2003 are still licking their
wounds and maintaining actions in Election Tribunals, and it is
obvious that some of those cases may still be pending when the tenure
of this administration runs out in 2007. This does not happen in any
part of the civilised world, and as long as we continue in our
practice of primitive democracy, the international community cannot
have anything other than contempt for our so-called democratic
structures.
-
Another set of
approximately 15 to 20 countries will continue to be democratic
aspirers. Most will continue to have multiparty elections, but the
quality will vary and citizens will continue to believe that there
is a significant possibility that their democratic system or certain
basic institutions face the real danger of collapse. Finally, about
twenty states—roughly the same number as today—will experience
authoritarian or semi-authoritarian rule. These countries may have
regularly scheduled multiparty elections but the outcome of those
votes will not be in doubt. Also included in this category will be
the increased number of failed states in Africa that will not have
even the mechanisms for voting in place.
This analysis can also
not be assailed in a reasonable manner, with facts on ground. Unless
something is done urgently about our fraudulent electoral systems and
the intolerant nature of our politicians, Nigeria will clearly still
be in the category of democratic aspirers in 15 years time. The
shameful manner in which Brigadier Gen. Buba Marwa was prevented from
declaring his membership for the ruling PDP, even in his own State,
which is controlled by the PDP recently, speaks volumes of the kind of
democracy we are practicing in Nigeria. One would have thought that
declaration of support and membership of a party by such a prominent
citizen would have been a thing of joy for the ruling party, but not
in Nigeria, as the party apparently already has more than enough
members!
Also, the continued
refusal of President Obasanjo to release Local Council funds to Lagos
State, apparently to further his arms wrestling contest with the Lagos
State Governor, in spite of a clear and unequivocal judgment of the
Supreme Court to that effect directly challenges the institution of
the judiciary and renders it completely impotent to play its
constitutional roles. Considering that the Supreme Court is the last
court in Nigeria, maybe President Obasanjo is waiting for the result
of an appeal to God before agreeing to release the funds and save the
families of the hapless workers in the Local Governments from
starvation, due to non payment of their legitimate salaries.
-
While all are
low probability, a variety of issues might cause our analysis to be
incorrect in certain areas and, more generally, not optimistic
enough. Certainly, if hydrocarbon management were improved across
the continent, Africa’s future in 2020 would look distinctly more
positive. If Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan—three of Africa’s largest
and most important countries—actually began to use their revenues
from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger,
tens of millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and
the impact on the region might be significant. Better hydrocarbon
management might come about because of international pressure to
promote the transparency of resource flows, aided by domestic
constituencies who have grown tired of the fraud associated with
wasting assets.
The above analysis shows
a glimmer of hope, and what needs to be done to address the pitiable
state of things on the African continent. The key question President
Obasanjo and his other colleagues in Angola and Sudan should be asking
themselves is what they will do to ensure better management of oil
resources in their countries, to enable the positive prediction of
their becoming stronger, tens of millions of Africans benefiting from
reduced poverty, and a significant impact on the region, to come to
pass, rather than condemning the report.
-
Similarly, if
agriculture were to show productivity gains in a significant number
of countries, there would be a general boost in growth, but also a
change in the urban-rural terms of trade that we portray above as
generally favoring the cities. African agriculture could become more
productive if it was the beneficiary of the kind of scientific
advances that helped Asian agriculture in the 1960s and 1970s.
Africa currently has the lowest level of inputs and the lowest
yields compared to genetic potential of any region on earth.
Again, another good
advice on the need to position Agriculture and ensure that it achieves
its full potentials. African leaders keep paying lip service to
promoting agriculture, but painfully, the efforts are not sustainable
and not deep enough to make any difference. It is shameful that with
such abundant blessings in terms of weather, most African countries,
including Nigeria, cannot feed themselves, and have to rely on food
imports, whereas countries in Europe, Asia and America where you would
think there are no farmers, actually produce so much food that no one
bothers to think seriously about the cost of food in these areas.
-
Other potential
developments might accelerate decline in Africa and reduce even our
limited optimism. The most important would be the outright collapse
of Nigeria.
While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that
all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could
disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important
would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to
the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a
sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could
drag down a large part of the West African region.
The above comment is
responsible for all the bad press about the intelligence report, but
it can be seen clearly that it is a fair comment. It is true that the
marriage of Nigerian politicians is one of convenience, and the ties
are actually fragile, given our penchant for degenerating into sudden
feats of violence for no justifiable reason, with government watching
helplessly until the warring parties choose to stop. As mentioned
earlier, this is just a scenario setting, which has no bearing with
reality. Much as we all agree that military interventions are
despicable and must never happen again in Nigeria, the recent incident
of ‘security breach’ for which Major Al-Mustapha and a few others are
being tried at the Federal High Court in Lagos shows that, undesirable
as it is, such incidents cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in
the face of blatant misrule and ever increasing despair among the
populace with the never arriving ‘dividends of democracy’.
-
Perhaps the
central message of this report is that in an age of globalization,
local factors will determine Africa’s fate. Geography, decisions by
governments past and present, the presence of trained professionals,
the strength of civil society groups promoting democracy, and the
capabilities of the local police and security forces all have the
potential to decisively affect the performance of individual African
countries in the next 15 years.
This is also a factual
comment that cannot be assailed by any serious minded person. It
provides suggestions of areas which need urgent attention to ensure
that Nigeria and other African countries pull out of their desperate
situation.
CONCLUSION
As
the Nigerian Senate commences debates on the US intelligence report,
one can only hope that their enlarged and informed membership will
read in between the lines, and ensure that the report is turned to a
window of opportunity for Nigeria and the rest of Africa. They should
avoid the temptation of joining the band wagon of criticism, which
appears to have been so ably commenced by the President in his letter,
but rather play their roles as legislators, and see the intelligence
report for what it is, a projection of different scenarios. They
should then galvanise efforts into ensuring that the upside scenarios
come to pass and the downsides do not happen. After all, 15 years is
just around the corner, and before you know it, all the indignation
and outrage that has followed this report may turn out to be misplaced
aggression, if nothing is done now to correct the structural
imbalances prevalent in our country and the rest of Africa.
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