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Babatunde Adenodi
Pharmacist
East Orange,
New Jersey
 USA

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more articles by Adenodi

Meanwhile, we are all watching the live show. It would have been fun were it not tragic. It would have been interesting were it not the soul of the Nigerian nation going down the drain. For how long will they keep us down? For how long will they continue to toy with our future? For how long shall we have to bear the burden?

 

The "Northern" Political Game Plan
 by Tunde Adenodi.

 

 

The “north” in this article will be defined as the Gideon Orkar excised north, the sharia states of northern Nigeria, the original seven Hausa states of of Daura, Gobir, Kano, Katsina Rano and Zaria also known as Zazzau; named after the seven children of Bayajida who was said to have killed a mythical snake that had terrorized villagers in Daura. For the benefit of all who do not know much about the history of the Hausa people, myself included, let me make life a little easier. The “north” comprises the following: Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Bauchi states; under the 19 state structure of the second republic. If the truth is to be told and I think that it is about time someone did, this distinct geographical area of northern Nigeria is our collective burden. Like it or not!

We were all witnesses to the mad man who came up with “Boko Haram”, that is: western education is forbidden in the year 2008.
Yes! A Nigerian said western education was not acceptable to his religion in 2008 because it was against the word of Allah! And he had thousands of followers! They killed hundreds of people before they were stopped. The Jos crisis has been festering for decades. It is now coming to a head. This year alone, about 1,000 innocent people have been killed. These are people who have lived together for generations. Suddenly, they are defined as “settlers” and “indigenes”. The same situation exists between Ife and Modakeke, and between the Urhobos and the Itsekiris in Warri and in hundreds of communities all across Nigeria. They do not go about killing each other every other day! This is because Islam has not been, and will not be involved! In 2007, yes indeed, barely 2 years ago, a Hauwa was to be stoned to death for adultery even while his male accomplice was roaming free! And then, the elusive president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria who has not been seen or heard from for 4 months suddenly appeared to no one but his wife and disappeared like a UFO! If this is not a burden, what is?

What they are now hoping for is for the Nigerian Army (NA) wing of the former Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), watered down to National Party of Nigeria (NPN), watered down to National Republican Convention (NRC), and yet further watered down to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to stage a coup to topple the fragile government of run-away President Yar’Adua. Please note that the “N” in those acronyms had always meant “northern”. Powerful elements in those parties never ever meant it to be “national“. And if the sun continues to rise from the east as it always will, they will never think about those organizations in the context of collective possesive “ours” as against the mind-set of parochial possesive “theirs”. They do not call their states’ logo “Born to Rule” for nothing! It is an article of faith.

It will be clearer to non-northerners as the PDP convention of 2014 draws nearer. Slowly, but steadily, it will become the “Southern“ Democratic Party. Not because they want it so; but because all the northerners in the party will have decamped to ANPP or any other northern based political party. They will have no compelling reason to respect the zonning policy of the PDP. They are not members of the party anymore. Except for the presence of a handful of southern boot-lickers, the ANPP would be capable of, if they so wish, holding the convention of the party in Hausa! This is to prepare them for elections of 2015 which PDP had ruled, under their zoning arrangement, that only southerners will be allowed to present a presidential candidate for. The presidency is their exclusive birth-right.

Set your mind back to the second republic, specifically to 1983. Shagari “wins” a “landslide” victory over his opponents that includes Obafemi Awolowo. By 1987, the south is to present the party’s presidential nominee under the NPN zonning arrangement. M K O Abiola has been disgraced out of the party because he dares to challenge Shagari for the party’s nomination for the 1983 presidential elections supervised by Olusegun Obasanjo. Shagari is a disaster. Just like all the PDP, no, all Nigerians now know that Yar’Adua is also an unmitigated disaster. You don’t need a Ph D to know this! NPN is not only focused on 1983 but strategically on what is to happen in 1987 when the north cannot present a candidate. They cause to be formed a party chairmanned by Aminu Kano, the PRP, which they will all swarm to, should NPN present Akinloye, Akinjide, or any southerner as their flag-bearer in 1987 presidential elections that Buhari’s coup has now pre-empted. Major General Muhammadu Buhari, is from the army wing of the NPN. As the General Officer Commanding in Jos/Bauchi, he has given notice to his commander in chief of his plan not less than one month before he takes over as commander in chief. So, the coup of 1983 was not unexpected by Alhaji Shehu Shagari. It is a win-win situation for the NPN and the politicians in military uniform and for northerners.

The same scenario is now playing out. Yar’Adua is a disaster. We all know that. Even if he were to return to office today, he would be a lame-duck president and cannot run for second term that begins in 2011. Indeed, could he just return to the office of president without having to explain why he had abandoned his post without telling anyone? He has destroyed his chances of ever coming back to office even if there is a dramatic and magical improvement in his health. Jonathan is a southerner and does not fit into the script and so cannot be president of Nigeria in 2011 under the zonning arrangement. The ANPP of Buhari will serve the purpose in 2011 which PRP was to serve if there was to be a presidential election in 1987. The difference is that the army wing has not responded by removing Jonathan and installing one of their members as Head of State. Having failed in this role, there is only one option now available to them: massive movement of major party leaders of the PDP to the ANPP or any other northern based political party in time for the 2011 presidential elections if the PDP nominates Mr Jonathan or any southerner. But the PDP will not nominate Jonathan and indeed, Jonathan will not run in 2011. It is his turn in 2015.

The massive movement to ANPP will commence in 2013 and by 2015 when it is Jonathan’s turn, the ANPP would have assumed the character of the old NPC, NPN or NRC and the leaders from the sharia states will then run for office in 2015 without necessarily violating the zonning arrangement! The rug would have been pulled out from under Jonathan and he will be left high and dry. The northern support would have vanished. This is what Atiku tried to do to Obasanjo 2007. Obasanjo was too smart for that. Ogbuluafor, the secretary of PDP did not know what he was saying when he declared that the Vice President, no, the Acting President of Nigeria will be by-passed for a lesser known PDP flag-bearer in 2011! No southerner knows the strategic thinking of the core-northerner when it comes to the post of president of Nigeria. They told him to say that and he did. Does Ogbuluafor not want to be president of Nigeria if given the chance? Don’t I?

The question now is this: Why did the military wing of the PDP - Peoples Democratic Party fail the northern caucus of the party? Because the PDP is not yet transformed into the “Northern” Democratic Party . The towering presence of Olusegun Obasanjo has not allowed the party to acquire its northern-ness to the extent of assuming the character and collective interest of the feudal elements of the party. Put in another way, Obasanjo is still a powerful force in the party and Yar’Adua had not been effective enough or was too sick or weak to install the needed structures for more effective control of the forces of coercion. Or he did not have enough time?

The military wing failed also because they know that military governments are not fashionable any more. Not after the disaster of Babangida, Abacha, Abdulsalami and the rest of them in Africa.

The PDP will be a shadow of itself in 2015. The ANPP will gather strength in 2013 and become a party of the northern feudalists. If a member of the Sharia states emerges as the presidential candidate in 2015, it will not be from the PDP. It will be from ANPP or any other one from the north.

The north has never believed in a Nigeria. It is Islam first, the north; then Nigeria… in that order. This is why Ahmadu Bello decided to remain as premier of northern region instead of Prime Minister of Nigeria! The post of prime minister is below his dignity. He would rather be the Sultan; the head of Nigerian muslims, the Ayatollah of Nigeria. A prince is not known to vie for chieftancy titles. To be a prime minister is commensurate to the position of a chief. He sent Balewa to Lagos and stayed behind in order to keep a watchful eye on the throne of Uthman Dan Fodio, the progenitor of the Sultanate. Even his post of Sardauna, to him, was superior to that of the Prime Minister. Balewa, his parliamentary secretary, who lacked all attributes of a leader and led us to disaster, was good enough for the post of prime minister.

So why are they now interested in Nigeria? …Oil! There is a lot of money being made from oil. And they want to be in the position, always, to distribute the returns among themselves! Their loyalty to Nigeria is to the extent that they are always in the position of distributing the oil resources to their cronies. This is why Yar’Adua, even as sick as he is (is he alive and did he return?), is made to “return” in a manner so crude that it stinks! Oil! If oil is factored out of the equation in Nigeria, the north will gideon orkar itself out of Nigeria in a Sokoto minute! Let us put it this way; if oil were found in Sokoto state today, the north will excise itself out of Nigeria in a twinkle of an eye. A corrupted version of Saudi Arabia will emerge in northern Nigeria immediately.

Babangida is not from the Gideon Orkar excised north. He is from Niger State - a sharia state. But he has earned his adoption through the Arewa College, the secondary school in Minna which has served as the breeding ground for northern elite. He has also served their interest well. What with the annulment of Abiola’s election? They could not have asked for more. Abdulsalami did even better. He presided over the killing of Abiola and Abacha. Abacha fell out of line by jailing Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and Obasanjo. This was not in the script. Even Babangida became scared of Abacha. He is so bold that he is even planning a come back yet again. It’s his father’s property, remember? You don’t merely “step aside” if you didn’t think it was yours in the first place!

Meanwhile, we are all watching the live show. It would have been fun were it not tragic. It would have been interesting were it not the soul of the Nigerian nation going down the drain. For how long will they keep us down? For how long will they continue to toy with our future? For how long shall we have to bear the burden?
 

 

 

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