There he goes again, threatening us with a run
for the presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. He did the
same thing four years ago under Gen Obasanjo who told him in no
ambiguous terms to stay away from the elections of 2007. He tried
to save some face by insisting that he had merely withrawn from
the race in deference to Yar’Adua who was his junior brother! But
if he is the true son of his father as I am sure he is and a
product of the exploited Delta Region as I know he is, President
Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent president, will not hand over to
Ibrahim Babangida even if he wins in a free and fair election.
Babangida has had the dubious honor of helping
General Obasanjo to become President of Nigeria twice in the past.
First, when he accosted Colonel Dimka at the Ikoyi station of
Radio Nigeria in February 1976 during the attempted coup against
General Murtala Muhammed. He succeeded in talking Dimka out of the
rebellion thus paving way for Obasanjo to take over without any
hiccup. Then after the death of Abacha and subsequent release of
Obasanjo from Abacha’s jail, Babangida was the first to visit Otta
to offer the presidency to Obasanjo in 1998. With this antecedent,
I had thought that Obasanjo might feel obliged to return the favor
to Babangida in 2003 when it was obvious that Obasanjo would have
to hand over. But I was wrong.
Obasanjo would not hand over to Babangida even
if he won! He would not allow anyone else to share the
distinguished honor of being President of Nigeria twice in their
lifetime. At that time I wrote the article titled “Run, IBB, run!”
in Gamji and other sites. I urged him to run in order to prove
once and for all that he was a political nobody in Nigeria! He has
a 50-room mansion in Minna. I had predicted a win for him in his
ward in Minna and that was all I gave him.
Since his encounter with Dimka in 1976, IBB has
worked assiduously to become Nigeria’s President. His efforts paid
off in 1987 when he assumed the presidency against tradition of
the military calling themselves: President. It was clear from this
action that he did not wake on that day to pronounce himself
President. It was well thought out. This is one of the reasons why
he is taken seriously by every one when he insists on running
again for the post of the President of Nigeria.
He “stepped aside” in 1993 because he had to.
He put it this way because he had come to believe that the post
had become his by birth; and since then he has worked to make
himself relevant in political discourse in the circle of the
mighty and the powerful in Nigeria. He believes, rightly in my
mind, that once you are chosen by the power brokers in Nigeria as
the flag-bearer, you will easily be rigged in as President. But he
has forgotten his shameful antecedents! No! He believes that
Nigerians have had a collective amnesia about his tyrannical
record of 8 years as President. He is led to believe that
Nigerians can only remember the one thing that was positive in all
that he did while in office: organizing an election that was
considered the freest and the fairest in the history of Nigeria.
He is now taking credit for some positive thing he had done in
error! And that positive thing he did in error is his undoing! By
now, Nigerians would have forgotten about Abiola’s election if it
had been fraught with fraud as all elections were before then and
have been, since. Yes! Babangida did do something good for
Nigeria: he organized a free and fair election in Nigeria and
secondly, he made the south aware that a southerner can win if the
candidate is good and the campaign is well-run! He also made
southerners aware that the north had not always won elections in
Nigeria. They had always rigged elections with the machinery of
state at their disposal.
One more thing: He annulled the election and
thereby denied Abiola the presidency even for one day! People who
think they are smart always do some dumb things: He could have
allowed MKO Abiola to rule for six months and have his men in the
army organize a coup to depose him for whatever reason they would
come up with! They had done it before. But he didn’t do that! His
hatred of Abiola and his undeclared ambition to be President for
ever blinded him to all reason! And when you cannot reason, you do
dumb things. This is the cross he is bearing. And he will go to
his grave carrying this burden.
Babangida knows that he can never win an
election in Nigeria if it is free and fair. And he does not wish
to run on the premise of an election that involves ballots stuffed
in boxes. No! He is hoping that an incumbent president of Nigeria
will be dumb enough to annoint him and rig him in as Obasanjo was,
to some extent, or as Yar’Adua was to a larger extent.
Only Major General Aguiyi Ironsi was that naïve
in the process of Nigeria’s political development. He had
foolishly put Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma and his buddies in his
personal security outfit after benefitting from a coup that killed
all Danjuma’s heroes! Of course, he was killed along with his host
Colonel Adekunle Fajuyi in the counter coup of 1966. There are no
more people like that in Nigeria. Certainly not from the Delta
area of Nigeria. He will have to contend with President Jonathan
who, it seems, is adjusting fast to his new position as President.
Babangida is only testing the waters to know
whether he is still relevant. He will withdraw at the appropriate
time when he starts hearing only his own voice. He will realise
that the market has dispersed. Why did he not test the waters
while Abacha was Head of State? Because he knew that Abacha was
not afraid to give him the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and Obasanjo
treatment. And now that Jonathan appears to bow to public pressure
that IBB must be probed on the USD 12.5 million Gulf Oil Windfall,
he is going to lie low for a while in order to stay out of public
glare until the controversy appears to be over. If the President
becomes a little more bellicose towards the President who stifled
democracy by annulling a free and fair election, IBB would keep
quiet for good!
Babangida has at his disposal tremendous
wealth. And he is eager to spend it. The work he put into making
this wealth is not in any way commensurate with the stupendous
wealth. So, spend, he can. And he will! Tell him what he wants to
hear: that people of Ondo support him or the people of Owu,
Abeokuta, Obasanjo’s hometown also support him. He would believe
it if told that Abiola’s daughter is prepared to vote for him!
If he is allowed to run, he will win only in
his ward in Minna if the elections are free and fair. This is not
to say that I would let him run if I were the President. May God
help him if I became Nigeria’s president!
Which Nigerians would not know this dictum: fool me once, you
are a fool; fool me twice, I am the fool?! Anyone who allows
Babangida to fool him again is a compound fool! Only a mumu
would let IBB become Nigeria’s president again!